Federal debt above $40 trillion. Long-term Treasury yields near two-decade highs. Valuation concentration and AI capital spending that draw louder warnings each quarter. Advisors are fielding a version of the same client question in nearly every review meeting: if these risks are real, shouldn't we be changing the portfolio?
Investment manager David Bahnsen argues that investors typically get the first half of that question right and the second half wrong. They correctly identify a legitimate economic risk, then assume that identifying a problem tells them what markets will do next, and when. The distance between a valid concern and an actionable investment decision is where most portfolio damage gets done.
In this session, David gives advisors a framework for that conversation: how to take client macro anxiety seriously without letting it drive allocation, what actually separates an economic development that warrants a portfolio change from one that does not, and why anchoring on business profits and the cash companies return to their owners keeps long-term decisions grounded in fundamentals rather than forecasts. The framework is drawn from his new book, Profit from the Profit (Post Hill Press, 2026).
Learning Objectives
After attending this program, participants will be able to:
- Distinguish between a legitimate macroeconomic concern and an actionable portfolio decision, and articulate to clients why the two are not the same thing.
- Apply a repeatable framework for evaluating whether a given economic development warrants a change in a client's allocation.
- Explain the difference between returns generated by a business itself, through profits and growing dividends, and returns that depend on the market continuing to pay a higher multiple.
- Use specific language and historical evidence to respond to common client fears about debt, interest rates, inflation, and valuations without dismissing those fears.
