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J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Guide to Retirement: Spending, Care Planning & Protecting What Matters Most

In this Financial Experts Network session, Sharon Carson of J.P. Morgan Asset Management presented key findings and planning frameworks from J.P. Morgan’s 2026 Guide to Retirement, focusing on retirement readiness, sustainable spending, Social Security planning, long-term care risks, and financial fraud prevention. 

Rather than framing retirement solely as an investment challenge, Carson emphasized that successful retirement planning increasingly requires behavioral coaching, spending psychology, health planning, and family coordination. A recurring theme throughout the presentation was that advisors must align retirement income strategies with how clients actually behave—not merely with theoretical financial optimization models.

The session highlighted several important trends:

• Higher levels of guaranteed income tend to increase retiree confidence and spending comfort. 
• Retirement spending often declines gradually over time rather than simply tracking inflation. 
• Long-term care remains one of the most difficult and unpredictable retirement planning risks. 
• Financial fraud targeting retirees is becoming increasingly sophisticated, particularly through AI-enhanced scams and social engineering tactics. 
• Retirement well-being depends heavily on purpose, social engagement, and behavioral health—not just portfolio balances. 

Carson also emphasized that retirement planning should be dynamic and revisited regularly, particularly for clients pursuing “die with zero” or principal-spending strategies.

Key Topics and Expanded Insights

Retirement Readiness Is About More Than Money

One of the session’s strongest themes was that retirement success depends on both financial preparedness and psychological preparedness. Carson explained that many clients who are financially ready to retire still experience anxiety because retirement fundamentally changes identity, structure, and daily purpose. 

Key Takeaways

• Retirement transitions often involve moving from highly structured schedules to largely unstructured time. 
• Clients who define a clear sense of purpose tend to experience higher levels of retirement well-being. 
• Advisors may need to incorporate behavioral coaching or retirement coaching referrals into planning conversations. 

Carson discussed research indicating that retirement well-being correlates strongly with:

• Social engagement 
• Healthy behaviors 
• Community involvement 
• Time spent helping others 
• Maintaining hobbies and personal interests 

She noted that for many professionals, work becomes deeply tied to identity, making retirement psychologically difficult even when finances are secure. Advisors may need to help clients prepare emotionally—not just financially—for retirement.

Advisor Planning Implications

• Incorporate lifestyle and purpose discussions into pre-retirement planning meetings. 
• Encourage clients to think intentionally about time use before retirement begins. 
• Recognize that retirement dissatisfaction can lead to overspending, under-spending, or major lifestyle reversals. 

Retirement Income Needs and Spending Patterns

Carson reviewed J.P. Morgan research on income replacement needs and retirement spending behavior, emphasizing that retirement expenses often decline over time rather than rising uniformly with inflation. 

Income Replacement Ratios Vary by Income Level

The presentation highlighted that:

• Higher-income households generally require lower replacement ratios. 
• Social Security replaces a smaller percentage of pre-retirement income for affluent households. 
• Taxes, payroll deductions, mortgage obligations, and child-related expenses often decline in retirement. 

Carson emphasized that spending patterns are highly individualized and advisors should avoid overreliance on generic rules of thumb.

The “Power of the Paycheck”

One of the more important behavioral insights involved guaranteed income and spending psychology.

J.P. Morgan research found that retirees with higher levels of guaranteed income:

• Spend more confidently 
• Experience less fear about portfolio depletion 
• Are more comfortable enjoying retirement 

Carson described guaranteed income psychologically as a “river” that continues flowing, whereas investment accounts feel more like a “lake” that clients fear draining. 

This distinction helps explain why many retirees resist spending principal even when financial plans indicate they can safely do so.

Advisor Planning Implications

• Spending behavior is behavioral, not purely mathematical. 
• Guaranteed income sources can materially improve retirement confidence. 
• Advisors should discuss emotional comfort with principal depletion—not merely withdrawal percentages. 

Retirement Spending Curves and Inflation

The webinar explored J.P. Morgan’s retirement spending curve research using anonymized Chase spending data. 

Key Findings

Across multiple wealth levels:

• Retirement spending generally declines with age. 
• Spending tends to fall approximately 1% below inflation annually. 
• Higher-net-worth retirees exhibit different spending curve shapes but still experience eventual declines. 

Carson emphasized that healthcare spending behaves differently:

• Healthcare inflation is typically higher than general inflation. 
• Healthcare becomes a larger percentage of total spending as retirees age. 

The session also showed that:

• Younger retirees tend to spend more on travel and entertainment. 
• Older retirees spend proportionally more on healthcare and housing-related costs. 

Important Nuances

Carson cautioned that:

• Long-term care expenses are highly irregular and should not simply be embedded into annual spending assumptions. 
• Many retirement planning tools may overestimate spending needs if they assume full inflation adjustments indefinitely. 

Advisor Planning Implications

• Spending assumptions should evolve throughout retirement. 
• Annual inflation assumptions may overstate future lifestyle spending needs. 
• Healthcare and long-term care should be modeled separately from ordinary living expenses. 

Social Security Planning and Policy Risk

Carson addressed several widespread misconceptions about Social Security, particularly around claiming decisions and fears about future insolvency. 

Delayed Claiming Trade-Offs

The presentation reviewed:

• Reduced benefits for claiming at age 62  
• Full retirement age rules 
• Delayed retirement credits through age 70 

Carson emphasized that claiming decisions should not be based solely on fear of future Social Security cuts.

Clarifying Common Social Security Misconceptions

A major point of clarification:

• Social Security is unlikely to disappear entirely. 
• Even absent Congressional action, payroll taxes are expected to continue funding a substantial portion of benefits. 

Carson referenced current projections suggesting that approximately 81% of scheduled benefits could still be payable if trust fund depletion occurs. 

She also noted:

• Benefit reductions for current retirees are politically unlikely. 
• Future reforms may focus more heavily on higher-income earners and payroll tax adjustments. 

Advisor Planning Implications

• Advisors should avoid fear-based claiming recommendations. 
• High earners may wish to model modest future benefit reductions. 
• Social Security planning should integrate longevity, taxation, healthcare costs, and guaranteed income needs. 

Long-Term Care Planning Challenges

Long-term care emerged as one of the most important and technically nuanced sections of the presentation. 

Key Long-Term Care Risks

Carson emphasized:

• Age is the single biggest risk factor for needing long-term care. 
• Long-term care costs vary dramatically by geography and care type. 
• Many families underestimate both the financial and emotional burden of caregiving. 

The presentation reviewed:

• Assisted living 
• Skilled nursing care 
• Home health aides 
• Adult day care 
• Family caregiving arrangements 

Family Caregiving Burdens

One notable statistic presented:

• Approximately 80% of caregiving is provided by family and friends. 

Carson emphasized the tremendous emotional and logistical burden this places on spouses and adult children.

Insurance and Funding Strategies

The webinar discussed:

• Traditional long-term care insurance 
• Hybrid life insurance/LTC products 
• Deferred income annuities 
• Home equity usage 
• Life plan communities 
• Medicaid planning considerations 

Carson explained that many traditional LTC policies experienced pricing issues because insurers underestimated lapse rates and future claims.

She also highlighted:

• Longer elimination periods can reduce premium costs. 
• Hybrid products have become increasingly popular. 
• Long-term care planning often requires combining multiple funding strategies. 

Advisor Planning Implications

• Long-term care planning should begin earlier than most clients expect. 
• Advisors should evaluate caregiver availability and family dynamics. 
• Insurance may address catastrophic risks rather than covering all possible care expenses. 

Healthcare Costs and IRMAA Planning

The session reviewed healthcare spending assumptions and Medicare-related planning concerns. 

Carson cited updated estimates showing annual healthcare costs in retirement—including Medigap coverage—can exceed $7,500 annually for some retirees.

Key Planning Issues

The webinar highlighted:

• Healthcare inflation often exceeds general inflation. 
• IRMAA surcharges can significantly increase Medicare premiums. 
• Surviving spouses are particularly vulnerable because IRMAA thresholds for single filers are substantially lower than married filing jointly thresholds. 

Advisor Planning Implications

• Roth conversion timing may materially affect IRMAA exposure. 
• Widowhood planning should incorporate Medicare surcharge modeling. 
• Healthcare costs should be stress-tested separately from general inflation assumptions. 

Financial Fraud and Elder Exploitation

The final major section focused on fraud prevention and elder financial abuse. 

Key Fraud Risks Discussed

Carson reviewed:

• Phishing and spoofing scams 
• Tech support scams 
• Cryptocurrency scams 
• Investment fraud 
• AI-generated voice impersonation scams 

A particularly important theme was that loneliness and isolation significantly increase fraud vulnerability.

Behavioral and Family Protections

The presentation emphasized:

• Regular family communication 
• Trusted contact structures 
• Fraud awareness education 
• Verbal verification systems 
• “Pause and verify” habits 

Carson recommended establishing family passphrases or security questions to help validate communications during suspected impersonation attempts.

Advisor Planning Implications

• Fraud prevention should become a standard retirement planning discussion. 
• Advisors should encourage clients to identify trusted contacts. 
• Older clients may require more structured communication safeguards as AI-driven scams become more sophisticated. 

Practical Advisor Takeaways

• Retirement planning must integrate behavioral coaching, not just investment analysis. 
• Guaranteed income can materially improve retiree confidence and spending flexibility. 
• Advisors should avoid simplistic inflation assumptions for retirement spending projections. 
• Long-term care planning requires flexible, multi-layered funding strategies. 
• Social Security fear narratives should be replaced with balanced, evidence-based planning discussions. 
• Fraud prevention and cognitive decline planning should become core retirement planning topics. 
• Widowhood and IRMAA exposure deserve separate analysis in retirement income planning. 
• Dynamic retirement plans updated regularly are more effective than static withdrawal rules. 

External Reference Sources

J.P. Morgan Asset Management – Guide to Retirement
https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/adv/insights/retirement-insights/guide-to-retirement/

Social Security Administration – Retirement Benefits
https://www.ssa.gov/retirement

Social Security Trustees Report
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trustees/

Medicare IRMAA Information
https://www.medicare.gov/basics/costs/medicare-costs/avoid-irmaa

National Institute on Aging – Long-Term Care
https://www.nia.nih.gov/health/long-term-care

Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services – Nursing Home and Long-Term Care Information
https://www.cms.gov/medicare/health-safety-standards/quality-safety-oversight-general-information/nursing-homes

Federal Trade Commission – Consumer Fraud Reporting
https://reportfraud.ftc.gov/

AARP Fraud Watch Network
https://www.aarp.org/money/scams-fraud/

IRS – Health Savings Accounts
https://www.irs.gov/publications/p969

Charity Navigator
https://www.charitynavigator.org/

My Life Site – Continuing Care Retirement Community Research
https://www.mylifesite.net/