When Jeremy Siegel published his Stocks for the Long Run thesis, little information was available on stocks before 1871 or bonds before 1926. And most of his key sources were published over 80 years ago. But today, digital archives have made it possible to compute real total return on stock and bond indexes back to 1793.
Join Professor Edward McQuarrie for a fascinating look at look at the new market history and how it compares to Siegel’s narrative. The new historical record shows that over multi-decade periods, sometimes stocks outperformed bonds, sometimes bonds outperformed stocks, and sometimes they performed about the same. The pattern of asset returns in the modern era, as seen in the Ibbotson SBBI, emerges as distinctly different from what came before. Newly available international returns are different still. After summarizing the new history, Professor McQuarrie will consider the implications for financial planning, including the 4% withdrawal rule, the diversification that can be achieved from holding a balanced mix of stocks and bonds, and resetting client expectations for long term performance.
Learning Objectives:
• Understand the sources for Jeremy Siegel’s research and the flaws now emerging
• Examine how a richer historical data set recalibrates expectations for the variability of stock and bond returns and the instability of their correlation
• Grasp how stock and bond returns vary as the holding period is lengthened from 1 to 50 years
• Analyze the implications of the newly revealed international and 19th century returns for asset allocation and expected portfolio performance
*CE/CPE Eligible: 1 CE credits are available to subscribers with these designations: CFP, CLU, ChFC and RICP. CPA subscribers will earn 1 CPE credits.
Field of Study: Specialized Knowledge
Prerequisites: There are no prerequisites for this session.
Advanced Preparation: None
Program Level: Basic
Delivery Method: Group Internet Based
NASBA Approved
Financial Experts Network (Sponsor Id#: 145173) is registered with the National Association of State Boards of Accountancy (NASBA) as a sponsor of continuing professional education on the National Registry of CPE Sponsors. State boards of accountancy have final authority on the acceptance of individual courses for CPE credit. Complaints regarding registered sponsors may be submitted to the National Registry of CPE Sponsors through its website: www.nasbaregistry.org.