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Supercharging the 4% Rule: Retirement Income Insights with Bill Bengen
1. Introduction
Host Tom Dickson welcomed Bill Bengen, widely known as the “Father of the 4% Rule,” to discuss updated withdrawal rate research based on expanded asset allocation analysis and new insights into inflation and market regimes.
Bengen explained that the original 4% rule was published in 1994 at 4.15%, based on the worst retirement start year (1968). After expanding asset classes and refining methodology, Bengen now places the safe withdrawal rate at approximately 4.7%.
2. Updated Safe Withdrawal Rate Research
2.1 Original 4% Rule Background
- Published in Journal of Financial Planning (1994).
- Based strictly on U.S. large-cap equities + intermediate-term Treasuries.
- Focused on 30-year retirement horizons.
- Uses backward-looking historical rolling periods (e.g., 1926–1992).
2.2 Updated Safe Max (≈4.7%)
Bengen’s new research expands to include:
- Small-cap stocks
- Mid-cap stocks
- Multi-asset diversification
- Inflation regime analysis
Adding more asset classes increases return stability and raises the safe max withdrawal rate.
External Fact Check:
Historical safe withdrawal rate research summary (Morningstar)
https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/what-safe-withdrawal-rate-now
3. Why the 4% Rule Isn’t One-Size-Fits-All
Bengen emphasized repeatedly:
“Most retirees can take more than 4%.”
He stresses the need for personalization based on:
- Planning horizon (life expectancy + margin)
- Account type (taxable / tax-advantaged / Roth)
- Legacy goals
- Asset allocation
- Inflation environment
- Sequence-of-returns risk
4. Eight Elements of a Personalized Withdrawal Plan
Bengen provided a structured framework with eight customizable variables that meaningfully affect safe withdrawal rates:
1) Withdrawal Method
Fixed real, fixed nominal, flexible, etc.
2) Planning Horizon
30 years is not universal—many clients need 35–40 years.
3) Account Type
Different tax treatments change effective withdrawal power.
4) Legacy Objectives
Spending vs. leaving an estate influences withdrawal aggressiveness.
5) Asset Allocation
More asset classes → potentially higher Safe Max.
6) Rebalancing Interval
Annual rebalancing generally best; multi-year intervals can affect safety.
7) “Super Investor” Factor
Clients who outperform market averages (e.g., due to advisor discipline).
8) Withdrawal Timing
Beginning-of-year vs. end-of-year withdrawals materially change sustainability.
5. Inflation’s Critical Role in Withdrawal Planning
Bengen highlighted that inflation is the single most dangerous variable in retirement planning.
His analysis shows that:
- High inflation start years reduce safe withdrawal rates
- Low, stable inflation supports higher withdrawals
- The 1968 cohort—worst case—would have failed even with strong equity markets due to extreme inflation
External Fact Check:
U.S. BLS historical CPI (1960–1980 inflation data)
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/home.htm
6. The Shiller CAPE Ratio as an Adjustment Tool
Bengen described using CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted P/E) as a practical guide for adjustments:
- High CAPE → reduce initial withdrawal
- Low CAPE → cautiously increase initial withdrawal
He noted that CAPE is informative but not predictive, and should be used as a risk-temperature gauge.
External Fact Check:
Shiller CAPE data (official Yale database)
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
7. Rebalancing and Glide Paths
Annual Rebalancing Preferred
Bengen reaffirmed annual rebalancing as optimal for maintaining withdrawal safety.
Rising Equity Glide Path
Aligns with research by Pfau/Kitces (not cited here per instruction), but Bengen agreed that a rising equity percentage late in retirement can improve outcomes.
External Fact Check:
Academic research on retirement glide paths (David Blanchett)
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1351847X.2014.923014
8. Case Studies Presented
Case Study 1: 30-Year Horizon
- 55% equities, 45% fixed income
- Annual rebalance
- Evaluated using CAPE + inflation regime
Bengen illustrated how these variables interact to generate a customized safe withdrawal rate.
Case Study 2: High-Inflation Scenario
- Emphasized need for immediate reduction in withdrawals
- Showed how failure rates rise dramatically when inflation spikes early in retirement
9. Role of Annuities in Retirement Plans
Although not part of his historical research dataset, Bengen stated:
- Annuities can help manage longevity risk
- They reduce required portfolio withdrawals
- They may allow higher equity exposures
He encouraged advisors to consider integrating annuities into broader income plans.
External Fact Check:
U.S. Treasury and GAO reports on annuities & retirement security
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-22-105245
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0194
10. Q&A Highlights
Bengen addressed:
• Why he excludes Social Security & annuities in his research
Because they vary dramatically by individual and do not fit standardized historic modeling.
• Bear markets & sequence risk
First 10 years remain critical; spending cuts may be necessary.
• Alternative asset classes
Including small caps and mid-caps improved Safe Max in his new research.
• Asset location
Important for net effective withdrawal rates, given taxes.
11. Resources & Closing
Attendees were directed to Bengen’s book:
“A Richer Retirement: Supercharging the 4% Rule”
Website: https://bengenbooks.com
Tom reminded participants about upcoming webinars (including Bob Keebler on tax planning).
12. External Fact-Check URLs (Consolidated List)
All fact-checking links used above are listed here together for easy reference:
Safe Withdrawal Rates & 4% Rule History
Morningstar on withdrawal rates
https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/what-safe-withdrawal-rate-now
Inflation History (CPI)
Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI tables
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/home.htm
Shiller CAPE Data
Official Yale database
http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data.htm
Retirement Glide Path Research
David Blanchett (Journal of Asset Management)
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1351847X.2014.923014
Annuity & Retirement Security Reports
GAO report
https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-22-105245
U.S. Treasury annuity research
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy0194
Bill Bengen Book Site
https://bengenbooks.com
4.7% is the new 4% "safe" withdrawal rate. Inflation is the worst enemy of retirees. I really enjoyed hearing directly from Bill Bengen, the source of a popular retirement rule and author of some articles I had to read in my Master of Financial Planning program at The American College of Financial Services.
- Samantha S.
All the new modifications and research, especially incorporating inflation, to update the "4%" rule.
- Harlow F.
Loved hearing from the master. Got some new insights and rules of thumb which were really helpful.
- Maureen B.
Wow! So great to hear directly from the guy who first proposed the so-called 4% Rule. Wonderful that he's updated his analysis and more fully explained what the results (original and update) really mean - and it isn't 4%. Any advisor or writer that uses 4% as some sort of guideline should shunned.
- Steven C.
Attendees Comments:
4.7% is the new 4% "safe" withdrawal rate. Inflation is the worst enemy of retirees. I really enjoyed hearing directly from Bill Bengen, the source of a popular retirement rule and author of some articles I had to read in my Master of Financial Planning program at The American College of Financial Services.
- Samantha S.
All the new modifications and research, especially incorporating inflation, to update the "4%" rule.
- Harlow F.
Loved hearing from the master. Got some new insights and rules of thumb which were really helpful.
- Maureen B.
Wow! So great to hear directly from the guy who first proposed the so-called 4% Rule. Wonderful that he's updated his analysis and more fully explained what the results (original and update) really mean - and it isn't 4%. Any advisor or writer that uses 4% as some sort of guideline should shunned.
- Steven C.